Draft StrategyAUG 18, 2026
ADP Is a Promise at Receiver and a Suggestion at Tight End
Two players can share an ADP and be nothing alike. I measured how far a draft slot actually moves, by position and by round, across eight seasons.
Jon StoneWeek 1 · 2026 Season · Updated Thu 6:00 AM ETRock-solid analysis.
Rock-solid analysis.
Ice-cold calls.
Weekly rankings, start/sit verdicts, and deep breakdowns from Jon Stone. No hedging, no hot takes — just calls you can build a lineup on.
Week 1 verdicts
- George KittleIce Cold
- Alec PierceIce Cold
- Stefon DiggsIce Cold
- MarShawn LloydOn the Rocks
Weekly Rankings
Week 1 · QBQuarterbacks
| RK | Rank change | Player | OPP | Matchup | Proj |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | — | Joe BurrowCINQB | TB | A | 18.2 |
| 02 | — | Josh AllenBUFQB | HOU | C | 19.7 |
| 03 | — | Lamar JacksonBALQB | IND | A | 19.6 |
| 04 | — | Jalen HurtsPHIQB | WAS | A | 19.5 |
| 05 | — | Justin HerbertLACQB | ARI | A | 18.3 |
| 06 | — | Dak PrescottDALQB | NYG | B | 16.9 |
| 07 | — | Jayden DanielsWASQB | PHI | D | 17.0 |
| 08 | — | Drake MayeNEQB | SEA | D | 17.5 |
- 01Joe BurrowCIN · TBA—
- 02Josh AllenBUF · HOUC—
- 03Lamar JacksonBAL · INDA—
- 04Jalen HurtsPHI · WASA—
- 05Justin HerbertLAC · ARIA—
- 06Dak PrescottDAL · NYGB—
Start / Sit
This week’s verdicts
Ice ColdSIT
George Kittle
SFTELAI have him TE36 — draft-day value says TE9. Think twice before starting him. The matchup is neutral.
Ice ColdSIT
Alec Pierce
INDWRBALI have him WR86 — draft-day value says WR40. Think twice before starting him. The matchup is neutral.
Ice ColdSIT
Stefon Diggs
WASWRPHII have him WR60 — draft-day value says WR42. Think twice before starting him. It's a tough matchup.
Latest breakdowns
Draft Strategy
What a Tight End Pick Actually Buys
I priced every tight end pick against the guy you could have had for free. Only one range of the draft came back worth the pick.
Jon Stone · AUG 18, 2026Draft Strategy
The Workhorse Cliff Is a Myth. The Birthday Isn't.
Everyone knows a 400-touch season breaks a running back. I measured it against seventeen years of data, and the thing everyone knows isn't there. Something else is.
Jon Stone · AUG 18, 2026